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The pace of change
Mon, 03/19/2007 - 22:03 — Mary Lee
I have an aunt who is still thriving at age 98, and in thinking of her I am reminded of how much has changed in her lifetime. She has seen the invention of the airplane, antibiotics, x-rays and lasers, spaceflight, the automobile, the internet, radio and television, nuclear power and the bomb -- it's enough to boggle the mind. What changes might a child born today see in the future? Anyone care to speculate?
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What about attitudes?
I wonder, if you asked your Aunt, what she would say about the change in each generation's overall attitudes that she has seen in her time here - particularly with respect to what we can accomplish if we put our minds to work.
Changing attitudes
I was surprised by the following article yesterday:
http://www.machineslikeus.com/cms/us-no-longer-technology-king
It says that the U.S. has lost its position as the world's primary engine of technology innovation. That speaks volumes for our declining attitudes and work ethic.
Knowing the future
Welcome aboard, Steve!
I want to know how it all turns out, too (the future, I mean) -- and it bugs me no end to think that one day I won't be around to find out. Wouldn't it be neat to be put into suspended animation for 50 or 100 years -- like Woody Allen in the movie, Sleeper -- only to wake up and see how everything had changed? It's one of the reasons I value knowing guys like you; you're as close to the future as I'm likely to get!
The unpredictability of change
Interesting question! I wonder how many of those things would have been suggested if you'd been able to ask that question 98 years ago?
Not many, I suspect. The laser, for instance, came more or less completely out of the blue, and even after it had been invented nobody would have guessed that the biggest application for this physicist's research tool cum terrible beam weapon would have been playing music!
So, personally I think speculation is so likely to be wrong that it almost counts as certain knowledge of what the future will NOT be like. I think there are a whole bunch of complete surprises awaiting us yet, that will make the future quite unlike anything we expect.
I guess that's a pretty dreadful admission, coming from someone who's actively trying to build that future! Even so, I think it applies to my own field (AI) just as much as any other.
I tell you what, though. The most frightening thing about knowing I'm going to die eventually is realizing that I'll never find out how the story ends...